The Speaker’s Commission on Public Policy held a half-day summit on the phenomena of brain drain in Mississippi.

The commission, organized by House Speaker Philip Gunn (R-Clinton) in 2018, put on the event with panelists from the state’s universities, entrepreneurs and some from the economic development realm along with legislators. 

The goal was to find ways to keep young, college-educated Mississippians in state and lure other college graduates to the Magnolia State.

Like with a previous summit on human trafficking, Gunn said his goal is for the discussion to provide a framework for legislation in the upcoming session in January.

“Brain drain is something that’s been talked about a lot and I’m don’t know if I understand all of the facets of that and that’s what this day is about,” Gunn said. “It’s for us to not only understand the issues, but come forward with solutions.”

Bill Rayburn is the CEO of mTrade, a Mississippi-based company that has built a proprietary loan acquisition system that brings together data and risk analysis in one portal for mortgage transactions. The company employs 200 workers in three locations in Oxford, Tupelo and New York.

He said the state, as evidenced by a scorecard by Economic Modeling that ranked counties by their ability to attract talented workers, is not doing a good job of not only retaining talented graduates, but luring ones from out of state.

Lafayette County was the only one of the state’s smaller counties to be ranked in the top 100 nationally in the scorecard. Only large county, Madison, was ranked in the top 200.

Rayburn said the state could focus on generating entrepreneurship in agriculture technology and that the state needs a strategic economic plan that is focused, actionable, time dependent and measurable. He also said that improving the state as an incubator of entrepreneurship in the new, knowledge-based economy could be done with private funds, but would do so faster with an infusion of taxpayer dollars.

One thing proposed during a roundtable session that the state needs to change its policies of providing generous incentives to manufacturers to bring industry to the state. 

“What we see from an economic development standpoint, the days of chasing smokestacks are coming to an abrupt end,” said Ashley Edwards, the president and CEO of the Gulf Coast Business Council. “I think most folks in our profession realize that. The numbers of those projects are few and far between. We can’t run a 1995-centric economic development strategy for an economy that no longer exists.”

There was more criticism of the top-down mentality when it comes to economic development in Mississippi. 

While these policies helped land carmakers such as Nissan and Toyoto and tiremakers Continental and Yokohama, there have been some missteps such as the KiOR biofuels plant in Columbus (now defunct and sold for scrap), a pair of defunct solar panel manufacturing plants (Twin Creeks and Stion) and an electric car builder (Greentech Automotive) where taxpayers lost money on their “investments.”

From 2012 to 2017, taxpayers have spent $678 million in just MDA grants alone from 2012 to 2017, or about $19,765 per job.

“Our problem is we don’t have the capital,” said Jeffrey Rupp, the director of outreach and corporate engagement at Mississippi State University’s College of Business. “We spend $600 million on a tire plant, which is great and we need those jobs, but we’re turning out 100 new entrepreneurs per year and with one half of one percent of that, we could really do a lot more.”

State Rep. Trey Lamar (R-Senatobia) touted his tax credit plan to keep college graduates in the state that he says he’ll bring back this year. Lamar introduced the legislation in the past two sessions, but it died in the Senate both times after passing the House.

House Bill 816— also known as the Mississippi Educational Talent Recruitment Act — would’ve provide recent graduates (within two years) from a four-year university or a post-graduate program such as medical school who live and work in Mississippi a rebate equal to all or a portion of the amount of their state income tax liability. 

In this episode of Unlicensed, we talk about the latest controversy at Ole Miss after the journalism school cancelled a conservative speaker, why our reliance on federal funds is not a good thing, and how the Popeyes chicken sandwich compares to Chick-fil-A.

Enrollment is down at Ole Miss for the third consecutive year according to new data from the Institutions of Higher Learning. 

The University of Mississippi, including the University Medical Center, has a fall 2019 enrollment of 22,273. It’s still (barely) the largest university in the state, but it is down 817 students from last year, or about a 3.5 percent drop. Enrollment was down 2.2 percent last year. 

Overall, enrollment at the eight state universities is down 1.6 percent, with 77,896 students, compared to 79,193 students last year. Two years ago, enrollment stood at 81,378. 

Mississippi State University, the second largest university in the state, had a gain of 252 students. State now has 22,226 students. They had the greatest gain in terms of the number of students, but Mississippi University for Women enjoyed the highest percentage increase at 3.8.

While no school had a bigger drop in terms of actual numbers than Ole Miss, Mississippi Valley State University had the largest drop percentage wise. They are down 6 percent. Alcorn State University also had a significant drop, 3.7 percent. 

Southern Miss, which is down 376 students over the past year, remains the third largest university in the state. Valley remains the smallest at 2,147 students. 

The cost to win Mississippi’s governor mansion can get expensive when a competitive Democrat is on the top of the ticket.

Tuesday’s election won by Republican Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves over the state’s lone remaining Democrat in statewide elected office, Attorney General Jim Hood, was the second most costly in state history after the 2003 race.

Then-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove was defeated by Gov. Haley Barbour in an election that cost a combined $18 million.

The final tally for 2019 added up to about $16 million, with Reeves spending $10.8 million and Hood spending about $5.2 million. This was more than the last two gubernatorial races combined.

Hood’s spending added to about $13.43 per each of his 402,080 votes (46.6 percent), while Reeves spent $24.01 for each of his 449,746 votes (52.1 percent). 

Those vote tallies are eerily similar to 2003, when Barbour defeated Musgrove 52.59 percent to 45.81 percent. Barbour had 470,404 votes against Musgrove’s 409,787 total. Turnout was higher in 2003 by 31,878 votes.

Hood had the best performance, both percentage-wise and numbers wise, in the last four cycles for a Democrat in a statewide race. 

The closest in percentage was John Eaves, who lost to the incumbent Barbour with 42.1 percent of the vote in 2007. Eaves received 313,232 votes out of 744,039 cast. 

Hood did better than predicted by several pre-election polls and won largely-Republican Madison county by 445 votes, swept all of the Delta counties and was competitive in GOP stronghold Desoto county with 37.7 percent of the vote (13,919 votes). 

In the hotly contested U.S. Senate runoff in 2018, Mike Espy earned 40.9 percent of the 42,884 votes cast in Desoto county.

Comparisons are difficult between statewide and national elections, but the possible ceiling for Democrats in Mississippi can be extrapolated from the 2008 and  2012 presidential elections won by Barack Obama with high statewide turnout. He earned 43 percent (554,641) of the 1,289,865 votes cast statewide in 2008 and 43.79 percent in 2012 (562,949 out of 1,285,584 total).

Speaking of Desoto county, Obama received 30.51 percent in 2008 in (19,627 votes) and 32.79 percent in 2012 (21,575 votes).

The U.S. Senate race in 2018 had the second-best Democrat showing statewide in the 2000s. Espy received 420,819 votes or 46.4 percent in the runoff won by Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.

One of places where the 2019 election was won for Reeves was in northeast Mississippi. The eight most northeastern counties went decisively for the lieutenant governor after voting heavily for Hood in his elections as attorney general. The Gulf Coast was also a place where Reeves racked up big numbers, as he received 64.1 percent of all votes there.

Gov. Phil Bryant’s path to the governor’s mansion after two terms of Barbour was easier than Reeves (or Barbour). 

In 2011, Bryant beat former Hattiesburg mayor Johnny DuPree in the general election 61 percent to 39 percent. DuPree spent $1.197 million in the race and received 348,617 votes. That adds up $3.43 per vote for the Democrat.

Bryant spent $5.58 million in the race and earned 544,851 votes. His spending amounted to about $10.24 per vote.

The 2015 election was one of the cheapest in recent memory. Bryant faced an unknown Democrat, truck driver Robert Gray. Gray, whose CB handle was the “Silent Knight,” spent a mere pittance on his campaign. His $4,835 in campaign spending added up to two cents per each of the 231,643 votes cast for him in the general election or 32.3 percent of votes cast.

Bryant spent $2.74 million on his race or about $5.74 per each of his 476,697 votes for 66.4 percent of the votes.

In this episode of Unlicensed, we talk about Tuesday's elections, some interesting results, and where we go next now that Republicans have full control over government in Mississippi.

Republicans first captured the governor’s mansion in Mississippi in 1991. It would take them 28 years before they won all eight statewide offices. 

But the Republican victory in the attorney general’s office for the first time wasn’t the story line of the night. That was more or less predetermined when Attorney General Jim Hood decided to run for governor, setting up the most competitive governor’s race in 16 years in the state.

Hood was everything you’d hope for as a Democrat. He’d been elected four times as a Democrat statewide; the last three times he was the only Democrat elected. He has roots in Northeast Mississippi, a populist region of the state once viewed as the key to win statewide. And a Democrat stronghold not too long ago.

Gov.-elect Tate Reeves had also been elected statewide four times, but he didn’t enjoy the broad appeal of the previous Republican governors, Haley Barbour and Phil Bryant. 

At the end of the day, all Democrats have to show is a narrower loss than normal. This isn’t a loss you can build on and argue that you are getting closer to the finish line. The near perfect storm of 2019 for Democrats likely won’t be there in 2023, and presumably, neither will Hood. 

There were no surprises among downballot races and very little crossover vote. In each of the seven races, Republicans won between 58 and 61 percent, a uniformity we hadn’t yet seen in the state. 

And while there was some jockeying for office, only one incumbent actually won re-election. Mike Chaney was re-elected to a fourth term as insurance commissioner. Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson and Auditor Shad White, who were both appointed to their positions by Gov. Phil Bryant, won their first full terms. 

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann will soon become lieutenant governor and preside over an even larger Republican majority. Treasurer Lynn Fitch is moving to attorney general as the first Republican in that office.

State Sen. Michael Watson became the first resident of the Coast to be elected statewide in a generation as he becomes the next secretary of state. And businessman David McRae was elected treasurer, four years after unsucessfully challenging Fitch in the Republican primary. 

Among regional offices, the central district, which is a slight Democrat district, produced a split result. Republicans appear to have picked up the public service commissioner spot with Brent Bailey leading Jackson City Councilman De’Keither Stamps by about 3,500 votes. Commissioner Cecil Brown, a Democrat, did not run for re-election.

But Democrats look likely to capture the transportation commissioner office with State Sen. Willie Simmons leading Brandon Mayor Butch Lee by almost 5,000 votes. Commissioner Dick Hall, a Republican, did not run for re-election. 

There was little movement in the legislature, with a split decision in the House.

Though not official, Democrats are leading in House District 64, a seat in Northeast Jackson long held by Republican Bill Denny. He is trailing Democrat Shanda Yates by about 1,300 votes. In Desoto county, Republican Ashley Henley is trailing Democrat Hester Jackson McCray by 13 votes. Henley represents a district whose demographics are rapidly moving away from Republicans. Neither of those races have been officially called. 

House District 122 is a pickup for Republicans. Brent Anderson cruised to his first election over Wendy McDonald 68-32. There was little drama in this largely Republican seat after Rep. David Baria, a Democrat, passed on re-election. And Republicans are leading in House District 12, an Oxford based seat. Long held by Republicans, Democrat Jay Hughes captured the seat four years before leaving it to run for statewide office. Republican Clay Deweese is leading Democrat Tiffany Kilpatrick by about 50 votes. 

Among the two former Democrats running as independents, Rep. Angela Cockerham has defeated Democrat Aisha Sanders 58-42 in a very strong showing. Though Lee county produced numerous problems with machines yesterday, longtime Rep. Steve Holland is trailing his opponent, Democrat Rickey Thompson, by about 200 votes. 

We saw more changes in the Senate, with Republicans in line for a net pickup of three seats. 

Republican Daniel Sparks cruised to victory in Senate District 5 defeating Democrat Steve Eaton 72-28, Republican Ben Suber defeated Democrat Kegan Coleman 58-42 in Senate District 8, Republican Melanie Sojourner is returning to the Senate after defeating Democrat Wiliiam Godfrey 58-42, and Republican Mike Thompson defeated Gary Fredericks 52-48 in Senate District 48. This seat was made open after Fredericks defeated incumbent Deborah Dawkins in the primary. 

Democrats were successful in the recently redistricted Senate District 22. Democrat Joseph Thomas defeated Republican Hayes Dent 52-48. 

Along with likely losing a House seat in Oxford, Democrats lost the open Oxford-based Senate seat by 17 points. In the Hattiesburg-based House District 102, Republican Missy McGee cruised to her first full term, winning by 30 points. 

These are the type of ‘swingy’ districts Democrats would need to begin capturing to make progress in either chamber. That didn’t happen yesterday, and if you’re a Democrat you have to be wondering what the future holds. Who is going to be the Democrat nominee for governor in four years? There is no obvious answer. 

Yesterday was a good day for Democrats. In Virginia and Kentucky. But in Mississippi, Democrats have little to be excited about.

Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves was elected governor, besting Attorney General Jim Hood by a 53-45 margin. Republicans will retain an office they have held since 2003 and for all but four years dating back to 1991. 

Reeves took an early lead, and was in command the whole night. Hood was able to make some progress over past Democratic candidates, particularly in his home base in Northeast Mississippi. Hood also did better than most Democrats in the suburbs, winning 35 percent in Rankin county and holding Reeves to a virtual tie in Madison county. 

But in the end, it wasn’t enough to propel a Democrat into the governor’s mansion. 

The governor’s race was the only competitive statewide race on the ballot. Republicans were expected to easily carry the remaining seven offices – and they did just that. This marks the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans occupy each of the eight statewide offices. 

Lt. Governor

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, a Republican, defeated Democrat State. Rep. Jay Hughes 61-39, with 75 percent reporting. 

Attorney General

Republicans finally captured the office that had escaped them since Republican dominance in statewide election came to fruition in 2007. Treasurer Lynn Fitch defeated Democrat Jennifer Riley-Collins 59-41, with 75 percent reporting. 

Auditor

Shad White, who was appointed auditor by Gov. Phil Bryant a year ago, was unopposed in his first run for the office. 

Secretary of State

Republican State Sen. Michael Watson defeated former Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, a Democrat, 60-40, with 75 percent reporting. 

Treasurer

Republican David McCrae defeated Democrat Addie Lee Green 62-38, with 75 percent reporting. 

Agriculture Commissioner

Republican Andy Gipson, who was appointed to this position by Bryant last year, was elected to his first full term. He defeated Democrat Rickey Cole 60-40, with 75 percent reporting.

Insurance Commissioner

Mike Chaney is the only incumbent who was elected four years ago to win election for the same position today. Chaney defeated his Democrat opponent Robert Amos, 62-37, with 75 percent reporting. 

Mississippi is leading the nation with improvements in K-12 educational outcomes and policy changes at the state level helped push the state’s students over the top.

According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the Magnolia State earned the top spot for fourth grade gains on reading and mathematics on the NAEP tests. It was the first time that Mississippi fourth graders earned a score higher (241) than the national average (240) in mathematics and tied the national average in reading (219).

Mississippi was the only state with measurable gains in three of four tested subjects on the tests, which are also called the nation’s report card.

Mississippi eighth graders ranked third nationally for growth in mathematics and reading in the same grade level held steady as the average dropped nationally. 

In 2009, only 22 percent of fourth graders were at or above proficiency level in reading. That sparked some changes at the state level. 

The Literacy-Based Promotion Act— better known as the Third Grade Reading Gate —played a large role in Mississippi’s improvement in fourth grade reading. The law was passed in 2013 and signed into law by Gov. Phil Bryant as one of his bigger educational initiatives. 

The reading gate legislation mandates that third graders read at or above grade level to be promoted to the fourth grade. The bill also provides help such as reading coaches to districts with large numbers of struggling students. There are 80 MDE literacy coaches serving 182 schools statewide.

In 2019, 32 percent of fourth graders met or exceeded the reading standard. 

This year, taxpayers will spend $15,094,500 on the literacy program. Last year, 36,384 third graders took the reading test, which got tougher this year, and 27,215 (74.8 percent of test takers) earned a passing or better grade on the test. 

In 2018, 25,000 out of 40,500 third graders (61.73 percent) scored a passing or better grade on the reading test. 

In 2009, only 22 percent of Mississippi fourth graders met or exceeded the standard on the mathematics test. Now, 39 percent of students meet that standard statewide. 

Eighth graders also improved, with 25 percent of them meeting the standards in 2019 for reading after only 19 percent made the grade in 2009. Twenty four percent of Mississippi eighth graders reached or exceeded the standard for math, a nine percent improvement from 2009 (15 percent).

Mississippi is still substandard (274) for eighth grade math compared with the national average of 281. Magnolia State eighth graders averaged a grade of 256 on the reading test, still below the national average of 262. That’s still better than 2015, when Mississippi eighth graders managed only a 252.

The District of Columbia had the lowest score for eighth grade reading (250), while Alabama had the lowest score for math at 269.

Minnesota had the highest scores for fourth grade math (248), while Massachusetts (231) earned the top spot for fourth grade reading. Alaska had the lowest score for fourth grade reading (204), while Alabama fourth graders had the worst score for math (230). 

Louisiana, West Virginia and New Mexico tied for next worst in math with scores of 231.

Gov. Phil Bryant is ending the last two months of his time in the governor’s mansion with approval ratings that are among the highest in the country. 

According to Morning Consult’s gubernatorial approval rankings from the third quarter of 2019, Bryant has a 55 percent approval rating compared to just 26 percent of voters who disapprove, a positive spread of 29 points. 

The 55-26 rating is good for 14th highest overall. The main difference is the majority of the governor’s ahead of Bryant have been in office for one full term or less. Bryant, of course, is wrapping up his eighth and final year. 

In his two elections, Bryant set modern day high marks for Republican gubernatorial candidates. He won 61 percent of the vote against then-Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree in 2011, while winning 66 percent in 2015 against Robert Gray, a truck driver who was the surprise Democrat nominee four years ago. 

About the survey

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Morning Consult conducted 533,985 surveys with registered U.S. voters from July 1 through September 30, 2019, to determine the Q3 2019 Governor Rankings.

The margins of error vary by state and party. You can see the margin of error for each governor here.

In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of their governor. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know / no opinion.

Morning Consult obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey.