In this episode of Unlicensed, we talk about Tuesday's elections, some interesting results, and where we go next now that Republicans have full control over government in Mississippi.

Republicans first captured the governor’s mansion in Mississippi in 1991. It would take them 28 years before they won all eight statewide offices. 

But the Republican victory in the attorney general’s office for the first time wasn’t the story line of the night. That was more or less predetermined when Attorney General Jim Hood decided to run for governor, setting up the most competitive governor’s race in 16 years in the state.

Hood was everything you’d hope for as a Democrat. He’d been elected four times as a Democrat statewide; the last three times he was the only Democrat elected. He has roots in Northeast Mississippi, a populist region of the state once viewed as the key to win statewide. And a Democrat stronghold not too long ago.

Gov.-elect Tate Reeves had also been elected statewide four times, but he didn’t enjoy the broad appeal of the previous Republican governors, Haley Barbour and Phil Bryant. 

At the end of the day, all Democrats have to show is a narrower loss than normal. This isn’t a loss you can build on and argue that you are getting closer to the finish line. The near perfect storm of 2019 for Democrats likely won’t be there in 2023, and presumably, neither will Hood. 

There were no surprises among downballot races and very little crossover vote. In each of the seven races, Republicans won between 58 and 61 percent, a uniformity we hadn’t yet seen in the state. 

And while there was some jockeying for office, only one incumbent actually won re-election. Mike Chaney was re-elected to a fourth term as insurance commissioner. Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson and Auditor Shad White, who were both appointed to their positions by Gov. Phil Bryant, won their first full terms. 

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann will soon become lieutenant governor and preside over an even larger Republican majority. Treasurer Lynn Fitch is moving to attorney general as the first Republican in that office.

State Sen. Michael Watson became the first resident of the Coast to be elected statewide in a generation as he becomes the next secretary of state. And businessman David McRae was elected treasurer, four years after unsucessfully challenging Fitch in the Republican primary. 

Among regional offices, the central district, which is a slight Democrat district, produced a split result. Republicans appear to have picked up the public service commissioner spot with Brent Bailey leading Jackson City Councilman De’Keither Stamps by about 3,500 votes. Commissioner Cecil Brown, a Democrat, did not run for re-election.

But Democrats look likely to capture the transportation commissioner office with State Sen. Willie Simmons leading Brandon Mayor Butch Lee by almost 5,000 votes. Commissioner Dick Hall, a Republican, did not run for re-election. 

There was little movement in the legislature, with a split decision in the House.

Though not official, Democrats are leading in House District 64, a seat in Northeast Jackson long held by Republican Bill Denny. He is trailing Democrat Shanda Yates by about 1,300 votes. In Desoto county, Republican Ashley Henley is trailing Democrat Hester Jackson McCray by 13 votes. Henley represents a district whose demographics are rapidly moving away from Republicans. Neither of those races have been officially called. 

House District 122 is a pickup for Republicans. Brent Anderson cruised to his first election over Wendy McDonald 68-32. There was little drama in this largely Republican seat after Rep. David Baria, a Democrat, passed on re-election. And Republicans are leading in House District 12, an Oxford based seat. Long held by Republicans, Democrat Jay Hughes captured the seat four years before leaving it to run for statewide office. Republican Clay Deweese is leading Democrat Tiffany Kilpatrick by about 50 votes. 

Among the two former Democrats running as independents, Rep. Angela Cockerham has defeated Democrat Aisha Sanders 58-42 in a very strong showing. Though Lee county produced numerous problems with machines yesterday, longtime Rep. Steve Holland is trailing his opponent, Democrat Rickey Thompson, by about 200 votes. 

We saw more changes in the Senate, with Republicans in line for a net pickup of three seats. 

Republican Daniel Sparks cruised to victory in Senate District 5 defeating Democrat Steve Eaton 72-28, Republican Ben Suber defeated Democrat Kegan Coleman 58-42 in Senate District 8, Republican Melanie Sojourner is returning to the Senate after defeating Democrat Wiliiam Godfrey 58-42, and Republican Mike Thompson defeated Gary Fredericks 52-48 in Senate District 48. This seat was made open after Fredericks defeated incumbent Deborah Dawkins in the primary. 

Democrats were successful in the recently redistricted Senate District 22. Democrat Joseph Thomas defeated Republican Hayes Dent 52-48. 

Along with likely losing a House seat in Oxford, Democrats lost the open Oxford-based Senate seat by 17 points. In the Hattiesburg-based House District 102, Republican Missy McGee cruised to her first full term, winning by 30 points. 

These are the type of ‘swingy’ districts Democrats would need to begin capturing to make progress in either chamber. That didn’t happen yesterday, and if you’re a Democrat you have to be wondering what the future holds. Who is going to be the Democrat nominee for governor in four years? There is no obvious answer. 

Yesterday was a good day for Democrats. In Virginia and Kentucky. But in Mississippi, Democrats have little to be excited about.

Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves was elected governor, besting Attorney General Jim Hood by a 53-45 margin. Republicans will retain an office they have held since 2003 and for all but four years dating back to 1991. 

Reeves took an early lead, and was in command the whole night. Hood was able to make some progress over past Democratic candidates, particularly in his home base in Northeast Mississippi. Hood also did better than most Democrats in the suburbs, winning 35 percent in Rankin county and holding Reeves to a virtual tie in Madison county. 

But in the end, it wasn’t enough to propel a Democrat into the governor’s mansion. 

The governor’s race was the only competitive statewide race on the ballot. Republicans were expected to easily carry the remaining seven offices – and they did just that. This marks the first time since Reconstruction that Republicans occupy each of the eight statewide offices. 

Lt. Governor

Secretary of State Delbert Hosemann, a Republican, defeated Democrat State. Rep. Jay Hughes 61-39, with 75 percent reporting. 

Attorney General

Republicans finally captured the office that had escaped them since Republican dominance in statewide election came to fruition in 2007. Treasurer Lynn Fitch defeated Democrat Jennifer Riley-Collins 59-41, with 75 percent reporting. 

Auditor

Shad White, who was appointed auditor by Gov. Phil Bryant a year ago, was unopposed in his first run for the office. 

Secretary of State

Republican State Sen. Michael Watson defeated former Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, a Democrat, 60-40, with 75 percent reporting. 

Treasurer

Republican David McCrae defeated Democrat Addie Lee Green 62-38, with 75 percent reporting. 

Agriculture Commissioner

Republican Andy Gipson, who was appointed to this position by Bryant last year, was elected to his first full term. He defeated Democrat Rickey Cole 60-40, with 75 percent reporting.

Insurance Commissioner

Mike Chaney is the only incumbent who was elected four years ago to win election for the same position today. Chaney defeated his Democrat opponent Robert Amos, 62-37, with 75 percent reporting. 

Mississippi is leading the nation with improvements in K-12 educational outcomes and policy changes at the state level helped push the state’s students over the top.

According to the National Assessment of Educational Progress, the Magnolia State earned the top spot for fourth grade gains on reading and mathematics on the NAEP tests. It was the first time that Mississippi fourth graders earned a score higher (241) than the national average (240) in mathematics and tied the national average in reading (219).

Mississippi was the only state with measurable gains in three of four tested subjects on the tests, which are also called the nation’s report card.

Mississippi eighth graders ranked third nationally for growth in mathematics and reading in the same grade level held steady as the average dropped nationally. 

In 2009, only 22 percent of fourth graders were at or above proficiency level in reading. That sparked some changes at the state level. 

The Literacy-Based Promotion Act— better known as the Third Grade Reading Gate —played a large role in Mississippi’s improvement in fourth grade reading. The law was passed in 2013 and signed into law by Gov. Phil Bryant as one of his bigger educational initiatives. 

The reading gate legislation mandates that third graders read at or above grade level to be promoted to the fourth grade. The bill also provides help such as reading coaches to districts with large numbers of struggling students. There are 80 MDE literacy coaches serving 182 schools statewide.

In 2019, 32 percent of fourth graders met or exceeded the reading standard. 

This year, taxpayers will spend $15,094,500 on the literacy program. Last year, 36,384 third graders took the reading test, which got tougher this year, and 27,215 (74.8 percent of test takers) earned a passing or better grade on the test. 

In 2018, 25,000 out of 40,500 third graders (61.73 percent) scored a passing or better grade on the reading test. 

In 2009, only 22 percent of Mississippi fourth graders met or exceeded the standard on the mathematics test. Now, 39 percent of students meet that standard statewide. 

Eighth graders also improved, with 25 percent of them meeting the standards in 2019 for reading after only 19 percent made the grade in 2009. Twenty four percent of Mississippi eighth graders reached or exceeded the standard for math, a nine percent improvement from 2009 (15 percent).

Mississippi is still substandard (274) for eighth grade math compared with the national average of 281. Magnolia State eighth graders averaged a grade of 256 on the reading test, still below the national average of 262. That’s still better than 2015, when Mississippi eighth graders managed only a 252.

The District of Columbia had the lowest score for eighth grade reading (250), while Alabama had the lowest score for math at 269.

Minnesota had the highest scores for fourth grade math (248), while Massachusetts (231) earned the top spot for fourth grade reading. Alaska had the lowest score for fourth grade reading (204), while Alabama fourth graders had the worst score for math (230). 

Louisiana, West Virginia and New Mexico tied for next worst in math with scores of 231.

Gov. Phil Bryant is ending the last two months of his time in the governor’s mansion with approval ratings that are among the highest in the country. 

According to Morning Consult’s gubernatorial approval rankings from the third quarter of 2019, Bryant has a 55 percent approval rating compared to just 26 percent of voters who disapprove, a positive spread of 29 points. 

The 55-26 rating is good for 14th highest overall. The main difference is the majority of the governor’s ahead of Bryant have been in office for one full term or less. Bryant, of course, is wrapping up his eighth and final year. 

In his two elections, Bryant set modern day high marks for Republican gubernatorial candidates. He won 61 percent of the vote against then-Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree in 2011, while winning 66 percent in 2015 against Robert Gray, a truck driver who was the surprise Democrat nominee four years ago. 

About the survey

On a daily basis, Morning Consult surveys over 5,000 registered voters across the United States. Morning Consult conducted 533,985 surveys with registered U.S. voters from July 1 through September 30, 2019, to determine the Q3 2019 Governor Rankings.

The margins of error vary by state and party. You can see the margin of error for each governor here.

In each poll, Americans indicated whether they approve or disapprove of the job performance of their governor. For each question, they could answer strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or don’t know / no opinion.

Morning Consult obtained population parameters for registered voters from the November 2012 Current Population Survey. 

All 122 seats in the state House of Representatives will be on the ballot in November, with Republicans looking to expand their current two-thirds majority. 

With Rep. Nick Bain of Corinth switching parties before he qualified for re-election earlier this year, Republicans now hold 75 seats in the House. (It’s technically 74 with a vacancy in a Republican held seat.) The number of Democrats also dipped when Reps. Angela Cockerham of Magnolia and Steve Holland of Plantersville opted to run as independents, forgoing potentially challenging Democratic primaries. 

Here is what we know

Heading to November, Republicans nearly have a majority just in terms of the number of seats Democrats failed to field a candidate. There are 55 seats with no Democratic candidate. There are 42 seats with no Republican opponent. Translation: There are very few competitive seats on the ballot. 

Here are the remaining races with both an R and a D:

After winning by two points in 2015, Rep, David Baria (D-Bay St. Louis) opted against a run at a third term in the House this year giving Republicans their pickup best opportunity. District 12, despite being in Oxford, is still a slight Republican district. With Rep. Jay Hughes (D-Oxford) running for higher office, this is another potential opening, though certainly more challenging. 

The only other competitive Democrat seat is District 75, currently held by Rep. Tom Miles (D-Forest). It’s a Republican-leaning district, but Miles has done just fine at the ballot box. He defeated Vance Cox, who he is facing again this year, 63-37 in 2015. 

Democrats are challenging a dozen or so Republican incumbents, yet the territory isn’t that great. Every district held by Republicans is a “Republican” district based on a partisan voting patterns. District 40 may be shifting away from Republicans, but Rep. Ashley Henley (R-Southaven) did win 69 percent of the vote in 2015. District 102 certainly entices Democrats, yet Rep. Missy McGee won nearly 68 percent in a 2017 special election – in a district Democrats targeted and spent money on. 

Regardless of where Democrats look, they will need to win in districts where statewide and national Republicans generally win 60 plus percent of the vote. Can Cathy Grace defeat Rep. Shane Aguirre in Tupelo? Can Shanda Yates topple Rep. Bill Denny in Northeast Jackson? Perhaps, but the numbers aren’t on their side. 

Because right now, if you want to defeat a Republican incumbent, your best chance to do so is in the Republican primary. 

Independent’s Day

We may see two independents elected for the first time in nearly two decades, though both Holland and Cockerham took divergent paths to their current efforts. 

Holland is facing a challenge from Rickey Thompson, a former Lee County Justice Court Judge, who was removed from the court four years ago for various judicial misconduct violations. Thompson, who is black, made this a racial issue, as did his supporters. Holland, who was first elected in 1983, choose to avoid a Democratic primary that is overwhelmingly black. 

Cockerham was one of two Democrats to land a committee chair four years ago and is in line for another powerful spot if she returns. Her willingness to side with Republicans has put her at odds with the Democratic leadership, and she is in an overwhelmingly Democratic district. She escaped a primary four years ago despite her close relationship with the Speaker. She was unable to do so again, so she decided to run as an independent. 

Best case scenario

For Democrats, you need a net 15 seat pickup for the majority. That’s not happening so you really have to be happy with a couple seats and knocking the Republicans out of their “supermajority” status. 

For Republicans, you need 7 seats for 82, which would be a two-thirds majority. That's likely impossible, this year, or ever, just based on the districts, so you want to see your incumbents win and pick up District 122, and then knocking off Miles and picking up District 12 would be a bonus.   

The Mississippi Association of Educators, one of the state’s teachers unions, has made various endorsements of statewide and legislative candidates.

They endorsed Jim Hood, Jay Hughes, Johnny Dupree, and Jennifer Riley-Collins; the Democratic nominees for governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, and attorney general.

They made numerous legislative endorsements earlier this year. Here is a review of endorsements among those who have general election opponents. 

MAE is relatively small in Mississippi, with less than 5,000 members and no collective bargaining rights. But they are part of the larger National Education Association, who is no stranger to delving into virtually every left-wing political issue.

At their recent convention, NAE affirmed a new business item that reads:

“The NEA will include an assertion of our defense of a person’s right to control their own body, especially for women, youth, and sexually marginalized people. The NEA vigorously opposes all attacks on the right to choose and stands on the fundamental right to abortion under Roe v. Wade.”

This is a sharp change from prior years when they attempted to walk more of a middle ground on abotion, saying they support “reproduction freedom,” not abortion, while bragging about not spending money in regards to pro-abortion legal services.

As we have seen with the left, abortion has moved from “safe, legal, and rare,” to legal until the moment of birth and funded by taxpayers. And if you disagree with that you are evil, anti-woman, and essentially support violence against women. 

But the bigger question is, is it necessary for the NEA, or its affiliates, to take a position on abortion? NEA is certainly a left-wing organization, that has never been in doubt. But, what does abortion have to do with education or teachers? 

One might presume a rejected item that calls for a renewed emphasis on quality education would be more in line with the NEA. That read:

“The National Education Association will re-dedicate itself to the pursuit of increased student learning in every public school in America by putting a renewed emphasis on quality education. NEA will make student learning the priority of the Association. NEA will not waiver in its commitment to student learning by adopting the following lens through which we will assess every NEA program and initiative: How does the proposed action promote the development of students as lifelong reflective learners?”

But, alas, the union rejected those ideas. 

All 52 seats in the state Senate are on the ballot in November, though there will be very few seats that are actually competitive. Republicans currently hold a 32-20 majority in the chamber. 

The fact that so little attention has been given to the Senate, or the House, is probably a good indication that Democrats will be hard-pressed to make any gains and may actually lose a couple seats if things break in the GOP’s favor on election day. 

Here is what we know

Democrats have 13 seats where they are running without a Republican opponent. Republicans have 23 seats where there is not a Democratic candidate. So that’s our base. 

Here are the remaining races with both an R and a D:

What seats are competitive?

Republicans are defending open seats in Districts 3, 9, 22, and 31. Districts 3 and 31 are overwhelmingly Republican and would constitute a major upset if Democrats were to pick up either. District 9 is a Republican leaning district, though anything around Oxford might make you nervous if you are a Republican. 

But the other open seat Republicans are defending is the newly redrawn District 22, courtesy of a federal lawsuit. Lawmakers adopted a new district, which increased the black voting-age population from 51 to 58 percent, giving Democrats a much greater chance of picking up this seat. (And their best chance overall.) The Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals upheld the implementation of the district. 

In District 10, Sen. Neil Whaley will have his first general election battle with an R next to his name. He won a non-partisan special election in 2017 in a district that is slight lean for Republicans, at best. It was previously held by a Democrat. 

Democrats are defending open seats in Districts 5, 8, 37, and 48. District 48 is open because Gary Fredericks defeated longtime incumbent Deborah Dawkins by almost 20 points in the primary. Dawkins had never won more than 53 percent of the vote and the opening gives Republicans a clear path in a seat they have long targeted, only to come up short. And while it doesn’t always translate, the district had about 4,500 votes in the GOP primary compared to 3,600 voting in the Democratic primary. It’s the most Democratic Senate seat on the Coast, but still leans Republican. 

District 5 is an overwhelmingly Republican seat that is historically Democrat, a once-common trend that is now almost extinct. The difference is that this year many of the local officials switched to the Republican Party. While not quite as Republican, Districts 8 and 37 also lean GOP. 

Best case scenario?

For Republicans, District 22 may be lost, but all other open seats and all incumbents hold. You then pick up the four Democrat-held open seats, giving Republicans a gain of three seats for the night and a 35-17 advantage, which is a two-thirds majority. 

Republicans are teetering on the edge of capacity in the Senate. That would likely do it.

For Democrats, you split the four Democrat-held open seats and pick up Districts 9, 10 and 22 from Republicans. That would give the Democrats a gain of one seat on the night, though they’d still be deep in the minority. 

Many Americans around the country will not attend school or work today, and that is because, upon that day, we celebrate the life and accomplishments of Christopher Columbus, founder of the New World. 

Unfortunately, many in our society, have now chosen not to recognize the name of this important holiday. In fact, many now claim this day in the name of Indigenous People. Such moral grandstanding dismisses the important historical and cultural significance of Columbus Day to millions of Catholics and Italians around the nation.

Rejection of Columbus Day is a disgrace and highlights modern progressives’ weak-willed insistence on placating the voices of mobs.

Much has been said about Columbus himself, but in this piece, I would like to discuss the origins of this day which we celebrate and its meaning for so many Americans. Columbus Day was unofficially celebrated in many cities and states as early as the 18th century but took on larger importance for many immigrant communities later on. 

In 1792, New York commemorated the 300th anniversary of Columbus’ landing. Many Italians and Catholics organized annual religious events to honor the explorer. On the 400th anniversary of the landing, President Benjamin Harrison encouraged people to “so far as possible, cease from toil and devote themselves to such exercises as may best express honor to the discoverer and their appreciation of the great achievements of the four completed centuries of American life.” 

Ultimately, it was in 1937, due to lobbying by the Knights of Columbus, that President Franklin Roosevelt declared Columbus Day a Federal Holiday.

Today, some oppose the legacy of Columbus and thus reject this holiday. Interestingly, those who stand against the day actually rest on a long tradition of opposition. Almost immediately from its founding, the day was opposed by many due to deeply ingrained biases against the Catholic faith and its followers. 

For many decades in our nation, much of the country felt that one could not be Catholic and be a true American. Catholics were seen as Papists who held the Church as having greater authority than the president and American institutions, and thus many believed that Catholics could not be productive members of society. In public life, Catholics were demonized and belittled. 

This deep-seated disgust for Catholics reared its ugly head consistently in public life. It can be seen in the vitriolic attacks against Al Smith, the first Catholic presidential candidate. Yet, it can also be traced all the way through John F. Kennedy’s presidential run, as he was frequently questioned and distrusted by many on account of his Catholic faith.

Furthermore, biases against Catholics served to further promote deep racism and resentment against Irish and Italian immigrants. For those who came to the United States seeking a better life, many found that they were not entirely welcomed by their new home both due to their faith and race.

Columbus Day became a central rallying point for Catholics. Christopher Columbus was viewed by many Americans as an initial founder of the nation, whose brave exploits ultimately led to the capacity for our great American nation to be established. Catholics seized upon this appreciation for the man and held up Columbus as a shining example that one could in fact be both Catholic, and a proud American. 

Furthermore, Italians especially revered the great explorer as a testament to how their people had contributed richly to American life, and that they ought to be accepted fully into society.

Columbus Day represents what is best about America. The day symbolizes that ultimate goal of immigrants for integration into society, and our constant historical challenge to better meet the full definition of the rights promised to Americans in the Constitution, and the ideas promoted by our traditions. 

Celebrating Columbus Day does not mean white-washing history. One can recognize the ills of Columbus’ actions, however, it is necessary to place his work within the context of the moment and the moral structures of the time.

It should never be forgotten how the day has empowered millions of Catholics and immigrants to make the claim that they, too, are proud Americans. Those who have done so should be ashamed of themselves for striking this day from their calendars. Rather than attempting to intellectually challenge our communities with a proper historical analysis of Columbus’ work as well as the origins of the day which celebrates him, they took the easy path and simply cast the day aside. 

Well, as an individual with family origins in both the Italian and Native American communities, and as a proud Catholic, I am deeply disheartened to see so many willing to dismiss history and tradition in order to appease the mobs of trending opinion who readily decry that which they oppose, without the slightest bit of contextual understanding for history.