As the coronavirus quarantine continues to spread in Mississippi and throughout the country, many are asking the same question: When will we hit our peak? And when will life be back to normal?

One of the most frequently cited models is that of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington. This provides projections for every state in the nation, incorporating current trend lines of deaths in the United States, with total projected deaths, and the peak day – the day we will see the most deaths. 

According to the most recent estimates, Mississippi is projected to hit peak daily deaths of 14 on April 25. That represents 0.4 daily deaths per 100,000 residents. That is the projection. The range shows we could see somewhere between 2 to 54 deaths on the peak day.

According to the current data, Mississippi is projected to see 400 deaths because of coronavirus, though the range now shows between 208 and 1,014. To date, there have been 193 deaths in the state. We are also not expected to see hospital bed shortages. 

How does that compare to neighboring states?

Most of the national coverage has focused on the hotspots around New York, or closer to home, in Louisiana. To get a better idea of what Mississippi’s projections mean, we took a closer look at projections for states closest to Mississippi. 

StatePeakDaily deaths per 100kTotal projected deaths
AlabamaApril 210.3306
ArkansasApril 280.1125
LouisianaApril 132.81,780
MississippiApril 250.4400
TennesseeApril 40.2233

The model is heavily dependent on social distancing measures such as stay-at-home orders, closing non-essential businesses, and closing schools. It assumes social distancing orders remain in place until the end of May. 

These projections are current as of April 23. This will be updated regularly to reflect any changes.